Green leader Trevor Sargent today tipped his hat towards the ABB’s (Anyone But Bertie’s) in the country by announcing that a coalition between Fianna Fail and the Green Party would not happen, although he did so with some important small print too. According to RTÉ, Sargent stated that his party could not join forces with Fianna Fail “in it’s current form” and no responsible party would either.
The comment is part of a careful Green Party alignment in light of the impending election campaign, which is sure to start in earnest when the Dáil is recalled in a few weeks.
In order to gain support the Greens, like all parties in opposition, will need to criticise the existing government and highlight its failings. In the same breath the Green party recognises the potential it has next year and knows it could hold the balance of power; Sargent is ensuring that he doesn’t say something now he will regret later on.
If the Greens were to right off a FF coalition completely Sargent could be forced to either to go back on his word or refuse the major influence a ‘balance of power’ situation gives; both have the potential to be any leader’s undoing. At the same time if the party aligns itself too closely to FF now it would be in effect injured in its election campaign.
At the moment, any FG/Lab coalition will need Green support to survive in office. As well as this with a weaking PD vote Fianna Fail are looking increasingly isolated in their coalition options. The Greens offer the best alternative for Bertie as Labour have already written off the idea and a partnership with Sinn Fein would be at best a last resort. Just like with FG/Lab, any FF offer of a coalition will be to the advantage of the Greens more than the main party and so coalition discussions and concessions on FF’s end would allow Sargent to tell his people that Bertie’s party had changed enough to be trusted again.
The Green Party may prove themselves to be the most important political force in the Dáil next year. Going by the latest Red C/SBP poll (PDF) the Green party would indeed be a key player in either sides aspirations for power and with that in mind it would be foolish for Sargent to limit his bargaining opportunities and even make himself out to be a liar this early in the game.