Last Monday night the unprecedented happened; Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein councillors worked together to block Fine Gael and Labour’s attempt at voting in Labour candidate Paddy Bourke as the Lord Mayor of Dublin. As a result of the unpredicted union Independent Councillor Vincent Jackson was instead elected. Intentionally or not this move, which came at a very significant time in the immediate future of Sinn Fein and Northern Ireland, is sure to bode well for Gerry Adams and co. With an eye on next year’s general election the party is now sure to rate its chances as a potential coalition partner higher than ever before.
Sinn Fein, first by their own abstention and more recently due to continued doubts over criminality has remained on the outskirts of Irish politics since the 1920’s. While most of the recent news about the party has been in the context of the North there is still no doubt that since their return to Dáil Eireann in the 80’s the party has harboured an interest in Cabinet positions south of the border; even more so now that the potential exists to legislate and influence legislation for the entire island, albeit from two very separate buildings.
While the temporary alliance of Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein is far from a resounding endorsement of the party, in the context of last Thursday’s big push for devolution from Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair, it may offer a glimmer of hope for the times ahead and some in Sinn Fein are sure to see it as an olive branch in disguise.
Iain Paisley has long challenged Ahern by saying that he will be willing to share power with Sinn Fein when Fianna Fail is, pointing out the hypocrisy of the Taoiseach’s stance. Using Dublin City Council as an example perhaps Ahern can suggest that his party is indeed ready and the differences between the two are now on policies rather than policing.
In public and so close to a general election Ahern would not be so candid however. While the party may be less critical of Sinn Fein it is unlikely that they will be quick to consider them fit for Government, even in the shadow of a working Stormont. To state that the party has an open mind to such a coalition would also play firmly into the hands of the opposition; Sinn Fein’s policies are not the kind that sits well with Fianna Fail’s wealthier supporters. Besides this many voters would have problems forgiving the party and many of its candidates for their suspected involvement in recent controversies such as Robert McCartney’s murder and the Northern Bank robbery.
What the Dublin Council vote does signal is the growing acceptance of Sinn Fein within political circles, even if it just as a tool to thwart the opposition. The increasingly normalised nature of the party may be enough, however to increase the urgency for movement in the run up to November 24th.
The truth of the matter is that with an operational assembly it will be even harder for the bigger parties to ignore Sinn Fein next year; especially if the split is to be as close as some polls predict. Adams and McGuinness are sure to take some joy in the fact that they are now seen at least as a tactical advantage, which is an improvement on the ‘untouchable’ status they have held up until now.
Should issues like policing be resolved and devolution restarted in time it is impossible to predict Fianna Fail or even perhaps Fine Gael/Labour’s stance on Sinn Fein should their seats hold the key to a majority government after the next election. The question would then shift to a completely new arena for the party; namely how far Sinn Fein is willing to bend on its economic and domestic policies which are largely incompatible with the existing and more successful approach. Unless the party can begin to move more to the centre, or the public appetite changes dramatically any position of power Sinn Fein find themselves in next year may be extremely short lived.